nimblenewrobotschangeindustry
drachten, thenetherlands
atthephilipselectronicsfactoryonthecoastofchina, hundredsofworkersusetheirhandsandspecializedtoolstoassembleelectricshavers. thatistheoldway.
atasisterfactoryhereinthedutchcountryside, 128robotarmsdothesameworkwithyoga-likeflexibility. videocamerasguidethemthroughfeatswellbeyondthecapabilityofthemostdexteroushuman.
Onerobotarmendlesslyformsthreeperfectbendsintwoconnectorwiresandslipsthemintoholesalmosttoosmallfortheeyetosee.Thearmsworksofastthattheymustbeenclosedinglasscagestopreventthepeoplesupervisingthemfrombeinginjured.Andtheydoitallwithoutacoffeebreak-threeshiftsaday, 365daysayear.
alltold, thefactoryherehasseveraldozenworkerspershift, aboutatenthasmanyastheplantinthechinesecityofzhuhai.
Thisisthefuture.Anewwaveofrobots,farmoreadeptthanthosenowcommonlyusedbyautomakersandotherheavymanufacturers,arereplacingworkersaroundtheworldinbothmanufacturinganddistribution. FactoriesliketheonehereintheNetherlandsareastrikingcounterpointtothoseusedbyAppleandotherconsumerelectronicsgiants, whichemployhundredsofthousandsoflow-skilledworkers.
andquot; withthesemachines, wecanmakeanyconsumerdeviceintheworld, andquot tI saidbinnevisser, whomanagesthephilipsassemblylineindrachten.
ManyindustryexecutivesandtechnologyexpertssayPhilipsand#39;sapproachisgaininggroundonAppleand#39;s.EvenasFoxconn,Appleand#39;siPhonemanufacturer,continuestobuildnewplantsandhirethousandsofadditionalworkerstomakesmartphones,itplanstoinstallmorethanamillionrobotswithinafewyearstosupplementitsworkforceinChina.
Foxconnhasnotsaidhowmanyworkerswillbedisplaced.Butitschairman,TerryGou,hasendorsedagrowinguseofrobots. speakingofhismorethanonemillionemployees, QInvam hesaidinjanuary, accordingtotheofficialxinhuanewsagency,: andquot; ashumanbeingsarealsoanimals,tomanageonemillionanimalsgivesmeaheadache.andquot;
Thefallingcostsandgrowingsophisticationofrobotshaverenewedadebateoverhowquicklyjobswillbelost.Thisyear,ErikBrynjolfssonandAndrewMcAfee,economistsattheMassachusettsInstituteofTechnology,madethecaseforarapidtransformation. andquot; Thepaceandscaleofthisencroachmentintohumanskillsisrelativelyrecentandhasprofoundeconomicimplications, andquot tI theywroteintheirbook, andquot; raceagainstthemachine.andquot;
Intheirminds,theadventoflow-costautomationforetellschangesonthescaleoftherevolutioninagriculturaltechnologyoverthelastcentury,whenfarmingemploymentintheUnitedStatesfellfrom40percentoftheworkforcetoabout2percent.
butbranferren, aveteranroboticistandindustrialproductdesigneratappliedmindsinglendale, california, arguesthattherearestillsteepobstacles. andquot; ihadanearlynaiveteaboutuniversalrobotsthatcouldjustdoanything, andquot; jatlh. andquot; Youhavetohavepeoplearoundanyway.Andpeopleareprettygoodatfiguringout,howdoIwiggletheradiatorinorslipthehoseon? andthesethingsarestillhardforrobotstodo.andquot;
Beyondthetechnicalchallengesliesresistancefromunionizedworkersandcommunitiesworriedaboutjobs.EventhoughrisinglaborandtransportationcostsinAsiaandfearsofintellectualpropertytheftarenowbringingsomeworkbacktotheWest,theascensionofrobotsmaymeanfewerjobswillbecreated.
attheflextronicssolarpanelfactoryinmilpitas, southofsanfrancisco, abannerproclaims, andquot; bringingjobsandamp; manufacturingbacktocalifornia! andquot; yetintheplant, therearerobotseverywhereandfewhumanworkers. Alloftheheavyliftingandalmostallofthepreciseworkisdonebyrobots.Thehumanworkerstrimexcessmaterial,threadwiresandscrewinahandfuloffasteners.
Suchadvancesinmanufacturingarealsotransformingothersectorsthatemploymillionsofworkers.Oneisdistribution,whererobotsthatzoomatthespeedoftheworldand#39;sfastestsprinterscanstore,retrieveandpackgoodsforshipmentfarmoreefficientlythanpeople.
Rapidimprovementinvisionandtouchtechnologiesisputtingawidearrayofmanualjobswithintheabilitiesofrobots.Forexample,Boeingand#39;swide-bodycommercialjetsarenowrivetedautomaticallybygiantmachinesthatmoverapidlyandpreciselyovertheskinoftheplanes.
andatearthboundfarmsincalifornia, fournewlyinstalledrobotarmswithcustomizedsuctioncupsswiftlyplaceclamshellcontainersoforganiclettuceintoshippingboxes. eachrobotreplacestwotofiveworkersatearthbound.
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AtanautomationtradeshowlastyearinChicago,RonPotter,thedirectorofroboticstechnologyatanAtlantaconsultingfirmcalledFactoryAutomationSystems,offeredanexampleofaroboticmanufacturingsystemthatinitiallycost$250,000andreplacedtwomachineoperators,eachearning$50,000ayear. overthe15-yearlifeofthesystem, themachinesyielded $ 3 .5millioninlaborandproductivitysavings.
governmentofficialsandindustryexecutivesintheunitedstatesarguethateveniffactoriesareautomated, theystillareavaluablesourceofjobs. iftheunitedstatesdoesnotcompeteforadvancedmanufacturinginindustrieslikeconsumerelectronics, itcouldloseproductengineeringanddesignaswell. nep eventhoughblue-collarjobswillbelost, moreefficientmanufacturingwillcreateskilledjobsindesigning, operatingandservicingtheassemblylines.
Androbotmakerssaytheirindustryitselfcreatesjobs.AreportcommissionedbytheInternationalFederationofRoboticslastyearfoundthat150,000peoplearealreadyemployedbyroboticsmanufacturersworldwide.
butamericanandeuropeandominanceinthenextgenerationofmanufacturingisuncertain. andquot; whatiseeisthatthechinesearegoingtoapplyrobots, nI'be'qu'mo' andquot tI saidfransvanhouten, philipsand vIlopQo' jay' 39 tI schiefexecutive. andquot; thewindowofopportunitytobringmanufacturingbackisbeforethathappens.andquot;
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atteslamotorsinfremont, california, ontheedgeofsiliconvalley, asmanyaseightrobotsperformaballetaroundeachvehicleasitstopsateachstationalongtheproductionlineforjustfiveminutes. therobotarmsseemhumanwhentheyreachovertoastandandchangetheirandquot tI handandquot tI toperformadifferenttask. whilethemanyrobotsinautofactoriestypicallyperformonlyonefunction, ateslarobotmightdouptofour: weld, veragh, bondingandinstallingacomponent. Ultimatelyasmanyas83TeslaSelectricluxurysedansadaywillbeproducedatthefactory.Whenthecompanyaddsasportutilityvehiclenextyear,itwillbebuiltonthesameassemblyline,oncetherobotsarereprogrammed.
teslaand vIlopQo' jay' 39 tI sfactoryistinybutrepresentsasignificantbetonflexiblerobots, onethatcouldbeamodelfortheindustry. andothersarealreadythinkingbigger.
HyundaiandBeijingMotorsrecentlycompletedamammothfactoryoutsideBeijingthatcanproduceamillionvehiclesayearusingmorerobotsandfewerpeoplethanthebigfactoriesoftheircompetitorsandwiththesameflexibilityasTeslaand#39;s,saidPaulChau,anAmericanventurecapitalistatWIHarper.
humansand vIlopQo' jay' 39;choHrole
InthedecadesincehebeganworkingasawarehousemaninTolleson,Arizona,JoshGraveshasseenhowautomationsystemscanmakeworkeasierbutalsocreatenewstressandinsecurity.ThegiantfacilitywhereheworksdistributesdrygoodsforKrogersupermarkets.
mr.graves, 29, wenttoworkinthewarehouserightoutofhighschool. thedemandingjobrequiredliftingheavyboxesandthehourswerelong.
TodayMr.Gravesdrivesasmallforklift-likemachine.Hewearsheadsetsandisinstructedbyacomputerizedvoiceonwheretogointhewarehousetogatherorstoreproducts.AcentralizedcomputertheworkerscallTheBraindictatestheirspeed.Managersknowexactlywhattheworkersdo,tothepreciseminute.
Becauseworkersaredoinglessphysicallabor,therearefewerinjuries,saidRomeAloise,aTeamstersvicepresidentinNorthernCalifornia.Becauseacomputersetsthepace,thestressisnowmorepsychological.
Severalyearsago,Mr.Gravesand#39;swarehouseinstalledaGermansystemthatautomaticallystoresandretrievescasesoffood.Thatledtotheeliminationof106jobs,or20percentoftheworkforce.
nowkrogerplanstobuildahighlyautomatedwarehouseintolleson.
andquot; wedonand vIlopQo' jay' 39 tI thaveaproblemwiththemachinescoming, andquot; mr.gravestoldcityofficials. andquot; buttellkrogerwedonand#39;twanttolosethesejobsinourcity.andquot;
Somejobsarestillbeyondthereachofautomation:constructionjobsthatrequireworkerstomoveinunpredictablesettingsandperformdifferenttasksthatarenotrepetitive;assemblyworkthatrequirestactilefeedbacklikeplacingfiberglasspanelsinsideairplanes,boatsorcars;andassemblyjobswhereonlyalimitedquantityofproductsaremadeorwheretherearemanyversionsofeachproduct,requiringexpensivereprogrammingofrobots.
butthatlistisgrowingshorter.
inanindustrialneighborhoodinpaloalto, california, arobotarmedwithelectronicandquot tI eyesandquot tI andasmallscoopandsuctioncupsrepeatedlypicksupboxesanddropsthemontoaconveyorbelt.
therobotusesatechnologypioneeredinmicrosoftand vIlopQo' jay' 39 tI skinectmotionsensingsystemforitsxboxvideogamesystem.
SuchrobotswillputautomationwithinrangeofcompanieslikeFederalExpressandUnitedParcelServicethatnowemploytensofthousandsofworkersdoingsuchtasks.
thestart-upbehindtherobot,industrialperceptioninc.ofmenlopark,california, willwinitsfirstcontractifitsmachinecanmoveoneboxeveryfourseconds. theengineersareconfidentthattherobotwillsoondomuchbetterthanthat, pickingupandsettingdownoneboxpersecond.
andquot; weand vIlopQo' jay' 39 tI reonthecuspofcompletelychangingmanufacturinganddistribution, andquot; saidgarybradski, amachine-visionscientistwhoisafounderofindustrialperception. andquot;Ithinkitand#39;snotassingularanevent,butitwillultimatelyhaveasbiganimpactastheInternet.andquot;
